...it's not dark yet, but it's gettin' there...

October 31, 2006

I Go On The Record

I've been following the polls and the elections closely, but until now I've avoided making any predictions. Now, a week out, I'm ready to cut through all the MSM's pro-Democratic propaganda and all the pie-in-the-sky optimism from the right wing press.

Here are my predictions. The Senate looks tight, but I think it will take a miracle for the Republicans to retain control. By my calculations, it will be a 50/50 split after next Tuesday. Republicans will lose in MT, OH, NJ, PA and RI. I think Corker will beat Ford, keeping TN Republican, but I could be wrong about that. In MD, Steele deserves to win, and though I mistrust polls generally, they can't be that far off. I don't think Steele will do it.

An evenly divided Senate is a de facto Democratic majority, since there are enough turncoat RINOs in the Senate to do Harry Reid's bidding. The Dems also know how to play rough and they will insist on some sort of accomodation on committee chairs. Republican Senate leaders, never known for stiff spines, will cave in to these demands.

As for the House, I have just two words for you: trust Gerrymandering. The Republicans will hold the House.

Divided government here we come. Now maybe in peacetime, a Democrat Senate was tolerable, but Kerry's despicable anti-military insults yesterday illustrate clearly why the Democrats cannot be trusted with any position of leadership.

Posted by annika, Oct. 31, 2006 | TrackBack (0)
Rubric: annikapunditry


There's only one poll that counts, and it's taken on election day. Dewine deserves to lose, but it is laughable that Sharrod Brown will win in Ohio. He is a Kucinich type flake, and an empty suit like Casey. The word is "low turnout", that works for us. Worst case, the D's end up in a blowback situation for '08. Can you say President Hunter?

Posted by: Casca on Oct. 31, 2006

You could be right about the Senate. My guess at this point, which I think is too early, is that the Dems are +4 or +5. Still, either party can pull a Kerry in the last few days. Also, there can always be some world event that shapes perception. Two weeks are an eternity when things are this close.

I think you are correct about the House, but the Dems still win 10+ seats.

Posted by: blu on Oct. 31, 2006

Did I write two weeks? Oops! Well even a week is an eternity. Let's hope the Rep $ advantage makes a difference.

Posted by: blu on Oct. 31, 2006

How do independents figure in? If there are two independents and both caucus with the Dems, do the "count" in the Dems favor if it ends up 49-49-2? Or does Cheney still hold the tiebreaking vote?

Posted by: ken on Oct. 31, 2006

I'm pretty sure that the I's can caucus with either party. In this case, both the I's are committed to the Dems.

Posted by: blu on Oct. 31, 2006

I disagree.

I think there will be a record turnout of Republicans that exceeds the huge turnout of 2004. Republicans will not turnout because they like the Republican candidates.

No, the Republicans will turn out to spit in the eye of the MSM and to get revenge on the MSM for their vote suppression techniques, news suppression and left-wing cheerleading. Republicans also want revenge on Democrats for all their outrageous insulting statements.

We are mad as hell, and we are not going to take it anymore.

Posted by: Jake on Oct. 31, 2006

Annika, let's hope your prediction about the Senate is as accurate as your predictions on Monday Night Football have been. ;)

Posted by: Jason H. on Oct. 31, 2006

Annie, before the Kerry "f" up I would agree with you, but I think a lot of pissed off repubs and independents just might remember how much they hate these guys and go out to vote against them, rather than voting for the Republicans.

Posted by: kyle8 on Oct. 31, 2006

The Associated With Terrorists Press is running a story with Dems insiders predicting them winning 35 seats (giving them a 20-seat majority).

The MSM has been running stories like this for the past two weeks. Any contrary opinion gets buried in the middle of the story. The cheerleading will be constant and loud the next few days.

I've yet to see one-story about how Kerry's fuck-up might affect things. That's not part of the template.

Posted by: blu on Oct. 31, 2006


Stick to the books. Politics is a very difficult game, a body contact sport, indeed.

The most important vote, every session, is the very first one. All the others are just details.

We will definitely hold the Senate, even if it is with 50, and that includes the RINO's. But if you control the Agenda, you control the pace and the issues, and don't scoff at it. I'll take every vote we can get.

I also agree that we will hold the House. I am in San Francisco for a few days, hanging out with people who are intoxicated by the thought of a Pelosi Speakership. They are doing the end zone dance, before they have crossed the goal line. We Republicans are mad, and are all voting; the Democrats are dancing.

My only question is: From which bridge will Nancy jump after she doesn't get the new drapes? George Washington, Golden Gate, Francis Scott Key, Golden Gate or 14th Street?

Your guess is as good as mine.

Posted by: shelly on Nov. 1, 2006

Shelly, I have to agree with you. All the old war elephants have seen this dance before. It's really hard to pickup seats. That's why you need a tidal wave like '94, you remember, the Clintons, national health care, and a congress full of check kiters.

Pelosi's thugs have done a great job of October surprising and sliming the shit out of R's this year. Heh, knocking off Bob Ney was a coup. They have been masterful. The Delay thing was all part of the plan. One hopes that R's learn the lesson, which I think Boener will, and spend the next cycle ripping these NGCS's a new asshole.

Ultimately, our targeted cash, and ground organization carries the day. Plus the tide of history is running R, and has been since Nixon.

Posted by: Casca on Nov. 1, 2006

The Dems peaked too early--around Foley. But this is going to go down to the wire and be very close regardless of who ultimately winds up on top. If I had to bet, I'd go with exactly the opposite result as Annie's prediction: R's hold the Senate, D's take the House, but razor-thin margins in each. The GOP will lose PA and RI, but I think we'll pick up NJ since Menendez is such a disastrously terrible candidate and Kean has name recognition. And I do think Mike Steele will win in Maryland: Prince George's County especially will swing in his favor way beyond what the polls suggest, because black voters do not want to tell pollsters they'd vote Republican. That should be enough to even counter any voting shenanigans in Baltimore.

Posted by: Dave J on Nov. 1, 2006

You didn't mention Virginia. Webb and Allen have been in a statistical dead heat in the last several polls I've seen.

Posted by: Matt on Nov. 2, 2006

i think Allen will win.

Posted by: annika on Nov. 2, 2006

We'll see. Webb just released his response to the NRA questionnaire, and he got 24 of 25 substantive questions right. I give him half-credit for the other one. (Maybe he just hasn't thought it through.) That'll play well outside Northern Virginia, though it may also be a sign of desperation.

Posted by: Matt on Nov. 2, 2006