...it's not dark yet, but it's gettin' there...
You may have sensed that I am a fan of Rudy Giuliani. While I haven't yet decided who I'm going to support, Rudy definitely makes the short list. And it's a very short list. I've already done the math on him, and nobody has yet debunked my theory. In fact, I'm the only one I've ever heard talking about the New York factor.
In a nutshell, my theory is this: People say Rudy is vulnerable on social issues, meaning he won't win the Red States. But people forget that he has a serious shot at winning New York, even against Hillary. And if Rudy wins NY's 31 electoral votes, he can pretty much thumb his nose at the South and still win the presidency. And I say, if he wins NY, he'll probably get NJ, and possibly PA and CT, too. Let me tell you, that's a scenario that scares the hell out of a lot of people. That's why no one's talking about it.
Now that Rudy's all but announced, you're going to hear a lot of people repeating the same mantra: "He's too liberal to win the nomination." Don't you believe it. The media wants you to believe it, because they know how formidable he really is. They've seen the polling. The "three-G"* conservatives want you to believe it too, because Rudy gives them nightmares.
But before you give in to the anti-hype, read this article in City Journal, entitled "Yes, Rudy Giuliani Is a Conservative". You may not come away completely convinced, but at least you'll know he's not the antichrist, as some want you to believe.
He cleaned up New York when the rest of the world had written it off. Ask any New Yorker. Pre-Giuliani, you took your life into your hands walking in the park after dark, or just riding the subway. Broadway was a shithole. There used to be certain neighborhoods where nobody wanted to live, that are now impossible to afford. New York had a genuine Renaissance in the 1990's and it was thanks to Rudy Giuliani. New Yorkers won't forget this.
Of course Rudy led that Renaissance in the face of withering criticism from the left. He made enemies, and as his tenure was winding down, his enemies seemed to have gotten to him. The Diallo shooting didn't help, either. But then came 9/11, and people saw again that this man was a courageous, principled and born leader. Flawed yes, but that's only a reminder that he's human like all of us. Rudy's personal problems are not going to dissuade New Yorkers from supporting him. They voted overwhelmingly for Clinton too.
Don't forget also that Giuliani is an amazing speaker. He gave the best speech at the 2004 Republican Convention. His style is spontaneous, populist, and deceptively effective. While Zell Miller fired up the base and Schwarzenegger won over the pundits, Rudy's speech was the most articulate defense of the War on Terror that has ever been given to a national audience.
Giuliani has also positioned himself well, by staying out of the administration. To move forward, he will need to come up with an approach to the Iraq mess that navigates the gulf between his unequivocal support for the War and the subsequent truth that Bush and Company have fucked it all up. On that issue he may lose ground to McCain, who has also been unwavering in his belief the Iraq was the right thing to do, while at the same time he's never thought we were doing it right.
In a sense, all Republican candidates except for Hagel are hamstrung by the success or failure of the President's Surge plan. No pro-war Republican will be elected on a victory platform if victory isn't within sight. Mark my words, if the Surge fails to show progress within the next 12 months, we will have a Democratic president in 2009. I think McCain and Giuliani have the best chance of convincing independent voters to stay the course in Iraq, but ultimately I think they'd lose to a cut-and-run Democrat if we don't start winning soon.
Finally, back to Giuliani's social liberal weaknesses. To those who don't like Rudy because he's pro gay marriage, I say where have you been? Gay marriage is here. It's a reality. The only way to put that genie back in the bottle is by a Constitutional Amendment, and good luck with that one. Same goes for abortion, and I'm about as far to the right on the abortion issue as it is possible to be. Rudy does worry me about gun rights, but he made a good first step at winning my confidence two days ago when he said:
I think those are the kinds of justices I would appoint - Scalia, Alito and Roberts. If you can find anybody as good as that, you are very, very fortunate.I'll keep watching. But as it stands now, Rudy should be the front-runner and I'm skeptical of any polls that don't have him at or near the top. His opponents in both parties will be gunning for him now. Rudy's never been shy about fighting back, so it should be a very interesting campaign whatever happens.
* Guns, gays and God.
He's my first choice as well. I think you make a good defense of his positives, but I'm looking forward to hearing from those on the Right who oppose him as well as those on the Left. (Straw and I have had some pretty good debates whether he did more harm than good in NYC.) Regardless, he'll be formidable. Those who write him off are fooling themselves.
So, let the debate begin...
Posted by: blu on Feb. 5, 2007Oh gawd, shades of Dewey.
Posted by: Casca on Feb. 5, 2007Casca, please elaborate for those of us born in the latter part of the 20th century.
Not calling you ancient....I'm just sayin'.....
Posted by: blu on Feb. 5, 2007Unfortunately, Rudy has too many skeletons in his closet and a really crazy ex that's too willing to talk. The Dems will only be too glad to dredge it all out during a campaign, which will definitely hurt him making Rudy to not a viable candidate.
Posted by: michele on Feb. 5, 2007Good gawd, you slithy little fuck, I don't remember Dewey. I am able to read history though. However, for those of you who are too lazy to do so. Dewey was a NY prosecutor who "cleaned up" NYC. He's most famous as the fellow in the headline held up by Truman in 1948 that read, "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN". Of course, that's not what happened.
Anni, you've been on campus too long. Rudy will have to say a lot of things to nail down the base. The party whores will be onboard early. If he hasn't got the base by September, Newt will be in the race, and will take it away from him. The lightweights notwithstanding, we've got a pretty good bench. The VP choice will be Ken Blackwell from Ohio. He's much cleaner than Osama Obama.
Posted by: Casca on Feb. 6, 2007One of the many reasons to vote for Rudy is his master smackdowns of the self-important leftist press. Douche Gregory, Terry Moran and that hideous, foul, decrepit, syphilitic snatch-breathed crone Helen Thomas are going to be smacked like pinatas!
Also, his longstanding beatdowns of that vile dike Rosie O’ Donuts made living here truly magnificent. He used to call her “pumpkin head” due to her size 12 empty, ugly squash.
Casca's right; Dewey's image holding up the paper (I'm pretty sure it was the Chicago Tribune) saying that he won was premature; the votes came in for Truman late (Mayor Daley was still printing them at press time).
Newt's my guy so far; Rudy can win, but can he get the nomination?
I do remember that time, but vaguely. I remember sitting with Truman at a dinner for Jack Kennedy in Washington, D.C. in the early 60's and chatting a bit about the steel seizure cases (look 'em up, kiddies) and his feeling about the Dewey election. Also, his recognition of Israel in '48 was galactic.
He was one hell of a guy, even if he was a Democrat.
Posted by: shelly on Feb. 6, 2007OK, Methusala, I know you've forgotten more than I'll ever know, but it was Truman holding up the Trib. Truman was the typical thug Democrat machine politician who had greatness thrust upon him. To be kind, he didn't understand the world. He shutdown the OSS leaving us blind going into the Cold War. Failed at shaping the post-war world, and created the scenario that got us knocked on our collective asses in Korea by gutting the military to spend the "peace dividend" after WWII. Few could have done worse. That he and Marshall are lionized is a tribute to American leftist media dominance from the Depression to the Reagan Revolution.
Posted by: Casca on Feb. 6, 2007Your trackback thingy is not working, so this is in lieu of a trackback.
I like Rudy, and won’t be horribly disappointed if he becomes our next President — I definitely prefer him to Hillary/Obama/Edwards. Nor do I think he’s too “liberal” for our Party’s nomination. In fact, I think Rudy would be a nice move back towards the center on many issues.
But I won't vote for him nor support his campaign, as I have a set-in-stone principal where I won't cast a vote for POTUS for any man or woman has not served in our country's military.
If you want the power to send our young men and women into war, you damned well better had been willing to volunteer yourself.
As a crusty old veteran, that's just how I feel about it.
Posted by: Robbie on Feb. 6, 2007I heard the Giuliani speak on the step by step process he used to clean up New York and the corrupt bureaucracy that allowed it to happen. He had the guts to clear the Mafia out of the fish market and waste hauling when everyone said he would be a dead man if he tried. It was a very impressive speech about his miraculous accomplishments.
I could support Rudy.
Posted by: Jake on Feb. 6, 2007Damn, Casca, you are absolutely right. What was I thnking?
Posted by: shelly on Feb. 6, 2007Who's this Robbie guy? I like the way he thinks. I was in the library last night, and saw a chicklette in blue coveralls wearing the rank of a Coast Guard Lt. Do they count? Not in my book. The inner Marine always takes over. I almost asked her WTF she was doing "in the ville" in a work uniform. But I come from the generation when the avaitors weren't allowed to wear their flightsuits through the gate.
Posted by: Casca on Feb. 6, 2007"Dewey was a NY prosecutor who "cleaned up" NYC. He's most famous as the fellow in the headline held up by Truman in 1948 that read, "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN". "
C'mon Casca. I expected something better than that - everybody has seen that fucking photo and knows the eventual outcome. BFD. I thought there was something in Dewey's political philosophy that you remember - having lived through it and all - that reminded you of Rudy. Instead, I get the usual profane, though humorous, bromide that shows you can use Wikipedia.
BTW, Newt? Really?! Any of you fucking dopes who think Newt has a snow ball's chance in hell of getting the nomination or winning really need to lay off the crack pipe. Newt is an opp researchers dream, whose negatives rival Hillary's. The man loves hearing himself talk and has left a paper/video trail that leaves him no chance at being anything but a talking head. Even suggesting Newt shows absolutely no understanding of modern day politics.
I love watching Newt on TV. He's smart and interesting. But he has zero chance of being President.
Right now, Rudy is the best choice because the only real alternatives are an egotistical old crank, who thinks the 1st amend is optional or an articulate Mormon, who seems to have a penchant for being on both sides of issues.
Posted by: blu on Feb. 6, 2007And here we have a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Posted by: Casca on Feb. 6, 2007i should do a post with one line summaries of the two dozen or so candidates in the ring as of today.
my line on Newt would be something like: i like him, but forget it.
Posted by: annika on Feb. 6, 2007I didn't think you could make a case for him, Casca.
Plagerizing famous quotes is funny though. Stick to that - cuz you are pretty funny...really - and leave the political analysis to the smart people.
Maybe, you can be the site Jester.
Anni, good take on Newt.
Posted by: blu on Feb. 6, 2007My but you're petulant today. Ah, but that's you everyday. My reason for not responding to your screed is that only a fool argues with a jackass. This you do daily. I shall not partake.
I'm sure that you're very smot, at least compared to the others on the short bus, but attribution isn't required when quoting Shakespeare in this instance, ya stupid fuck. Now educate me some more.
Posted by: Casca on Feb. 6, 2007I can't help it...it's too easy. I don't mind ya taking cheap shots at Straw and Will, but I'm not your bitch so no freebies, Grandpa. You get friskie with me, I beat you down just like the Lefties. Besides, I just want you to make a case for your opinion. I don't mind having my mind changed by good thinking. Wasn'tlooking for an argument -just a friendly exchange of ideas.
If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us, shall we not revenge?
Posted by: blu on Feb. 6, 2007Blu,
Maybe tomorrow I will find time to laugh about Rudy. Right now I am finishing up a late night and delivering a Prada display to Macy's for a 9pm til 6am set-up. He is not, as I have said before, presidential material. Haivng the UN nearby does not give him foreign policy cred. From afar much about him may be appealing to you law and order types who munch on the constitution when the going gets tough, and his couple of heartfelt moments at ground zero were, like anytime a polition is moved to being real, glimses of a part of his character that he never shows and actually seems to abhor in himself.
Later.
Posted by: strawman on Feb. 6, 2007