I Go On The Record — Update

On Tuesday I went on the record, saying that the Democrats will pick up five Senate seats to split the upper house 50/50. I just spent the last hour re-analyzing the latest polls, and I stand by that prediction.

Democrats will gain seats in Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island. Republicans will fail to take over Democratic seats in Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota. Republicans will hold on to their seats in Virginia and Tennessee.

The races where I might be wrong are, of course, the hotly contested Montana and Missouri elections.

Montana perplexes me. I don't know enough about the issues to say why, but Democrat Tester has consistently polled ahead of Republican Burns since April. It might be Tester's haircut. Tester's ads portray him as a regular guy, someone you could have a beer with. By contrast, Burns seems more like, well, Mr. Burns. The race is still close. The latest Zogby poll has Burns down by a percentage point. But I'm still calling it for Tester. I think Montanans are turned off by Burns' alleged Abramoff connections, and Tester is a native who looks the part. I also think you can probably trust Montana poll numbers more than you would some other state's.

In Missouri, Republican incumbent Jim Talent is polling about three points behind Democrat Claire McCaskill. The polls have switched back and forth all year between the two candidates. If I'm wrong about any of my predictions, Missouri is likely to be the one. But I think Missouri is a weird state; it seems so evenly split between red and blue. One thing I think McCaskill has going for her is that there are large urban areas where the Democrats can use fraud to add a few unearned points to her total. Talent seems like a good guy though, and I hope he wins.

I could also be wrong about Virginia. I predict Republican incumbent George Allen will hold on to win, despite recent polls showing Democrat Jim Webb with a one to five point advantage. I'm sticking with Allen because I trust Virginia is at heart a conservative state, and I don't trust the pollsters there. When was the last time a Democrat won a national election in Virginia? Okay, Chuck Robb, but he was a centrist. Webb may have a certain appeal to conservatives, but if voting for him means handing the Senate over to the Democrats, I think Virginians will do the right thing.

Finally, I'm still sticking with my prediction that Maryland's open Senate seat will remain in Democrat hands. When was the last time a Republican won a national election in Maryland? And my fraud theory holds here too. I really hope Steele wins, though. After what they've done and said about him, Steele's Democrat critics ought to wear sheets and hoods. It's disgusting.

My best case scenario for Republicans has them maintaining a Senate majority by three seats. Santorum, DeWine and Chafee are toast. But if Steele, Talent and Burns win, there's our three seats. Of course I'm still assuming that Allen and Corker win Virginia and Tennessee, but I think they will.

The House is way too complicated for me to analyze, so like I said before: trust Gerrymandering.

Update: See how far out on a limb I am? Only one guy at the Weekly Standard agrees with me.