Rudy, like McCain, has a problem only with the party insiders. If either gets the nomination, it will be a shoo-in.

I guess it depends on how badly we need to win.

But who would be the 'insider's candidate.' It was GWB last time. McCain has made publicized vists to exGovernor Clements, who establihed the tipping pont to Republicans in Texas, also some wealthy potential backers in Dallas including the Wylie's who sabotaged him with clean air advertising last time, now it's all smiles. For some, McCain has hurt himself over immigration and his continuing bullheadedness with McCain-Feingold.

If you have a nominee who wins New York, Jersey's a gimmie. Pennsylvania's a tougher nut to crack. That's a heavily unionized state, which a Republican hasn't won at the dance since '88. If you win PA, you have Michigan, too, and then you have the makings of a board sweep, a-la '72 or '84.

If the Democrats nominate Hillary (which I still don't think they will), they get shut out entirely in the South. Unless the Republicans nominate a neandrathal like Santorum or Brownback, you clear the board against Hillary.

On the other hand, if the Democrats get smart and nominate Warner, that opens up the South and costs the Republican nominee - whoever that is - the industrial Northeast. Neither party has played a 50 state game in over 20 years. I think if the Democrats forced the GOP to fight a little in the South, the board game could be reversed. They hold what they have and make gains down there. I remember Carter and Clinton doing it that way.

Here's an interesting point to consider. Has anyone thought about whether McCain or Giuliani can open up the big casino of California?

As to the Republicans not having a "Northern stragegy", that was the only one they had between Reconstruction and the Great Depression. As a matter of fact, it was the only game they had, and they held the White House and Congress for most of those years. I could be wrong, but I think that Cleveland and Wilson were the only Democratic presidents between 1868 and 1932.

I wouldn't be particularly happy to see either of them win.

"that was the only one they had between Reconstruction and the Great Depression"

no really?!

I was talking about a post-Southern strategy strategy.

Re California. As a Californian, I'll tell you it's inconceivable that any Democrat could lose it in '08. I don't care if they put up Kucinich, Cali is blue for the forseeable future. Part of the reason, which I heard from a party insider, is that the National Party refuses to throw away any money here. Cali republicans just don't deliver for them.

Shit anni, where's the love? Don't be a Cali R hater. It's the union thugs who own SF & LA. The rest of us are true blue all the way through. Until the day when the D's can't steal votes in the big cities, we're fucked. Although, there are two options; the federal election law requiring all voter records be digitized has kicked in which makes finding fraud a lot easier, and seccession. I'm ready to hook up San Diego, Riverside, & Orange Counties in the new state of Southern California, Mwahahahaha!

How about Guliani with George Allen as VP? It throws a bone to the more conservative wing of the Republican Party, and somewhat cancels the effects of a Warner candidacy in Virginia and the rest of the South---thus, balancing the ticket geographically and ideologically. Personally, I think Rudy is already running, and that he will win. I think Allen is very underestimated, but his cowboy schtick bears a little too much resemblance to Bush for today's policital environment for him to win the Presidency this time around.

Believe it or not, I believe that CT will vote for Guiliani over Hillary. Game. Set. Match. Hillary wont even take her "home state" of New York. Pffffttt...

Annie - I don't think one can generalize a Hillary-Rudi matchup to a larger electoral strategy. If you believe in polls, Hillary has a polarizing effect - higher absolutely yes or hell no ratings than any other candidate. If Rudi can survive the nomination and get the hell no voters to show up, then he'll probably win. He was smart to stay out of this administration and Congress as most of the other candidates will have a twistable record of votes on polarizing issues like immigration and Iraq. Warner of VA might have a shot similar to 1976 unless it's Rudi. I don't think you get many situations similar to what seems to be forming in 08.

Bottom line - If Hillary gets the nom, I'd be trying to get state committees to get a host of initiative/referendum type items on the ballot to draw the marginal hell no voter out.

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Rudy's first wife was his second cousin. That will guarantee him 100% of the Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi vote.