...it's not dark yet, but it's gettin' there...
As promised, here's my final pre-election take.
Issue Number Three: The Apparent Dead Heat In The Polls
In short, i don't buy it for a number of reasons. i think the press and the pollsters, out of bias and self-interest, are making this thing out to be closer than it actually is. i also think that polling methodology has not kept up with changes in demographics and technology.
i'm confident that Bush will win the election. If i have any worry, it's that the Democratic get-out-the-vote effort will be very organized and strong. That's because there are more Democrats available to volunteer than Republicans. Students, union operatives and professional activists can easily take the day off to drive voters to the polls and staff the phone banks. Most Republicans still have to go to work. Then of course, there's also Democratic fraud.
But despite these concerns, i still have faith in the common sense of the average American. In fact, i am so certain that George W. Bush will win the election, that i am willing to make the following wager: i will bet this blog on a George Bush victory.
i offer to bet this blog against any liberal blog rated as a large mammal on the TTLB Ecosystem. Winner is the blogger who backs the prevailing candidate, Bush or Kerry. i take Bush. Loser shuts down his or her blog. For good. Effective inauguration day, 2005.
That should be a good incentive for fans of annika's journal to get out there and vote. Not that i expect any bloggers to take my bet, because deep down, everybody knows i'm right.
Update: Obviously, the offer expires when polls open on the East Coast.
Stayed up late looking at states and polls, and made my exact prediction in this post:
http://theendzone.blogspot.com/2004/11/end-zone-predicts-bush-352-kerry-186.html
"Horserace Blog (http://jaycost.blogspot.com/) believes Kerry has no more than a 2% chance of winning. That might be accurate, except for the Democratic cheating. Mark Steyn says Bush has to achieve victory "outside the 'Margin of Lawyer.'" I'd say the cheat factor gives Kerry a 5-10% chance of winning. If Kerry does win, he can thank his lawyers, his cheaters on the ground, and absolutely clueless voters.
[...]
Here's the incredibly obvious flaw that no one is mentioning: If turnout is huge, it overwhelms any metric for accurately predicting the results. [...] King Kong Margins of Error mean pollsters are not worth their big-money fees. I suspect that's the reason pollsters are not admitting the obvious correlation between huge turnout and pollster cluelessness."
BTW, anyone who wants to do me a favor can rip into my cousin for his WOT views by leaving a comment on this post:
http://theendzone.blogspot.com/2004/10/why-i-voted-for-george-w-bush-or-wot.html
I cannot rip my cousin any more, b/c he is one of my great and close friends, and I'm afraid hard feelings might arise between us. But I would get a great laugh from seeing someone else rip him!
Posted by: gcotharn on Nov. 1, 2004Clarification: I wrote that WOT post, and my cousin Jeff commented on it, wondering why our military is in Iraq.
Posted by: gcotharn on Nov. 1, 2004Oy. I really wish I had your optimism. Here's hoping.
Posted by: Dave J on Nov. 1, 2004I'm optimistic, but you stand a better chance by making the bet contingent on the Jets' performance rather than those of lawyers/frauds.
Posted by: Scof on Nov. 1, 2004I don't believe all the polls saying how close this election will be. I believe Bush will win a second term and we will all know by tomorrow night. I may be after midnight, but we will hear of his history making re-election!
Posted by: Izzy on Nov. 1, 2004You are right about the polls. Bush will win by 11 points.
Posted by: Jake on Nov. 1, 2004From a war weary private on the battlefield in PA(ME):
"Your honour calls you hence...
And all the gods go with you! Upon your sword
Sit laurel victory."
- William Shakespeare
The troops are positioned, the supplies are in place, the strategy is set and the battlefield has been chosen. The Ground war Begins At 6:45 AM.
ONWARD to Victory for our President!
Sure I am this day we are masters of our fate, that the task which has been set before us is not above our strength; that its pangs and toils are not beyond our endurance. As long as we have faith in our own cause and an unconquerable will to win, victory will not be denied us."
- Winston Churchill
Congratulations on keeping your blog. Did any of body accept your bet? If so, who? I'd love to go read their parting words.
Posted by: Robbie on Nov. 3, 2004i've never had the impule to call any liberal wise. Until now. Wisely, no one had the guts to take my bet.
Posted by: annika on Nov. 3, 2004