...it's not dark yet, but it's gettin' there...

July 05, 2004

Vice Presidential Prognostication

Since my predictions during last year's football season were so amazing, i imagine that lots of my visitors are clamoring for my opinion regarding Kerry's as yet un-named running mate.

The short list includes Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former president Hillery Clinton of course, and Missouri Representative Richard Gephardt.

i don't know who Vilsack is and i suspect that since i never heard of him, he must be a loser. Kerry is also a loser, so it naturally follows that Vilsack would be on the list. But he is not the pick.

John Edwards is cute, friendly, not a raving maniacal Bush hater (although he is a passable Bush dis-liker) and polls well with women. He might help the Democratic ticket if the election were based on a straight popular vote. But since we elect presidents based on the electoral college, Kerry must pick someone who will help deliver battleground states. Edwards might not even deliver South Carolina. Kerry would have to be an idiot to pick Edwards, which is why he's on the short list, since Kerry is an idiot.

Hillery will not be on the ticket because she is too divisive. She'd love to be the vice presidential candidate because, even if she loses, her stature rises in preparation for a run in 2008. There are many who love her, but right now, there are just as many who despise and fear her. After a few months as vice presidential candidate, people may get used to the idea of her as president again and her negatives may decline. Still, Kerry will not have her, because of his ego. He wants to run things, and to do so he can't have Hillery on his back.

But i think the man who makes perfect sense is Dick Gephardt. First of all he's paid his dues, it's his turn. He's viewed as more moderate than Kerry, so he's not too scary and will appeal to more than just the Dean crazies. Also, since the unions got Kerry by the balls, and Gephardt is their man, Kerry may not have a choice. He might have been given an offer he couldn't refuse, if you know what i mean. If Kerry delivers for the unions, they will deliver for him. And lastly, Gephardt has appeal in the battleground states of the midwest which, combined with his national recognizability, combines the best of Edwards and the best of Vilsack.

Put your money on Dick Gephardt.

Posted by annika, Jul. 5, 2004 |
Rubric: annikapunditry


If Hillary ever becomes president of this country, I'm moving to England.

Posted by: Shae on Jul. 5, 2004

I'm not sure Kerry - who's already a Washington insider - is going to pick another Washington insider. The unions are already for the most part going to vote Democratic and most of the big ones sided with Dean/Gephardt in the primaries so I doubt Kerry feels much need to bring on one of their guys.

I think he go for Vilsack or perhaps Sen Bayh if he felt his campaign needed the real outsider kick. I suspect his campaign folks are feeling confident to some degree that the race is basically even and that 75% (according to one poll) of registered voters have already decided. So given the race is going to come down probably to turnout in a few states (and that Kerry can't control the factors that may swing some folks either way (Iraq/economy), he'll probably opt for Edwards. Edwards can come off as a somewhat outsider, is enough contrast to Kerry's elitist, New England background, and is probably the best campaigner in terms of energizing turnout. He can't deliver NC (he probably would have lost his reelection bid anyway), but I think Kerry has written off most of the South anyway.

Posted by: Col Steve on Jul. 5, 2004

Sorry Annie, I have to part company with you here.

Kerry has said, in no uncertain terms, that service in the National Guard is the equivalent of draft dodging. Guess where Gephardt fulfilled his commitment?

I think that Kerry wants someone who can be a good soldier and not outshine, but can deliver at least one battleground state. I'm thinking Bob Graham or Sam Nunn.

But like you say, they are all a bunch of losers, and guess who wants to see Kerry lose the most? I'll give you a hint; they both have recently published best sellers, and enjoy telephone sex.

Posted by: shelly s. on Jul. 5, 2004

It appears that annika is right. The New York Post is reporting that Gephardt has been chosen.


I'm impressed. I eagerly await your election predictions.

Posted by: Dan on Jul. 6, 2004

Oops. Edwards.

Unless he's changed his mind again. What are the odds?

Posted by: Ted on Jul. 6, 2004

Well, it appears we all three were wrong, Annika. You, me and Kerry.

Well, it is nothing new for the Democratic ticket to lose the state of the members of the ticket. Gore couldn't even hold Tennessee last time around, or Arkansas, so why should we feel that North Carolina is in the Demo camp?

Hell, the Solid South will remain the Solid South, and no ambulance chaser is going to change that.

Posted by: shelly s. on Jul. 6, 2004

Shelly - as I stated in my post, it's about turnout (and money).

Posted by: Col Steve on Jul. 6, 2004